18, Apr
Variance in Sports Betting: An Essential Concept 

What is variance in sports betting? It’s essential to understand the concept of variance in sports betting if you want to understand sports betting in the best way: accept the loss of a bet, accept the bad run but also protect yourself from tilt.

Definition Variance in Sports Betting

The variance is a statistical concept, which allows us to calculate the dispersion of the average deviation with the expectation. In other words, assuming that you are betting value bets, the variance in sports betting represents the average difference between your expected winnings and your actual winnings.

In sports betting, when you bet with your average odds, you expect of winning or at least of breaking even:

If you bet an average odds of 2, your expectation of not having a loss is 50% success (assuming you are in a fixed bet).

However, throughout your career, you will sometimes have x% success in one month, sometimes y% in another, sometimes z% in the following month, etc. The curve of your bankroll will therefore oscillate.

These oscillations represent the deviation from your expectation, these oscillations are nothing other than the variance. In short, a behavior other than a rectilinear progression; at least in the short term.

The Notion of Probability

Now let’s go back in time and recall your mathematics classes on probability. If you toss a coin, theoretically you have a 50% chance of getting heads or tails. Now, in a series of 10 tosses, you will most likely get x number of tails and y number of heads. However, the more you repeat the operation over and over again, the more you will tend to reach 50%.

We will use this image to understand the notion of both volume and smoothing of variance in sports betting.

Smoothing out the Variance in Sports Betting

Sports Contingency and Imponderables

None of us will deny that we have never experienced a long losing streak. Never having lost or validated a bet at the last minute, on a stroke of luck or misfortune?

By an unexpected fact of play such as a red card or an unforeseen injury, etc.

A whole list of imponderables, i.e. unpredictable events that can turn the match upside down. Imponderables at the very source of sport. Let’s remember that sports betting is first and foremost subject to the vagaries of sport. And this will help us to understand the rest.

What Does Smoothing the Variance Mean?

Smoothing the variance means minimizing its effects over the long term. It is to obtain in the long term, a more or less rectilinear progression. This progression can be positive or negative but it will leave no room for chance. No room for imponderables!

That’s why we talk about a minimum sample of 500 predictions to know if you are a profitable bettor or not. Because the larger the sample of your predictions, the more the luck factor disappears. This is called smoothing the variance.

Do Volume to Reduce the Impact of Variance on Your Results

The more volume you do, i.e. the larger the sample size of your sports bets, the closer your real winnings will be to your winnings expectation.

This is not illogical and has been theorized in mathematics by the law of large numbers.

This concept explains that when the same event based on chance is repeated a large number of times, the average of the results obtained tends to be closer to the expectation of the event.

This is exactly the image of the coin toss I showed you in the introduction. Your expectation is 50% and the real result will tend towards 50/50 with the greatest number of throws possible. Except that if you toss the coin only 10 times you may only get the tails side twice. By throwing it 500 times the gap will close.

This implies that the more you will tend to judge a balance with the least number of counted beats possible, the more you will apply the law of small numbers to which a high variance is subject.

18, Feb
Basics to Know About Progressive Slots

Who hasn’t dreamed, even once in their life, of winning the jackpot by playing a slot machine? Indeed, it’s the dream of every gambling enthusiast. Whether you’re an expert or just getting interested in gambling, you should know that even though the chance is the name of the game, it’s still possible to learn how to win and to attract luck to yourself. You can learn some basic techniques and tricks that allow you to optimize your chances of winning at the various games of chance available online or in classic casinos. Indeed, whether it’s poker, roulette, blackjack, or slot machines, there are a variety of methods to put luck on your side. We are interested in slot machines, especially in their progressive alternative, which offer you more chances to win the jackpot and why not, to realize your dream of being that lucky winner. How is this possible? Here’s what you need to know about progressive slots and how to fine-tune your playing style.

Understanding Progressive Slots

online slots

Slot machines are one of the most popular gambling games in the world, both at online casinos and regular casinos. They are easy to use and don’t usually require large starting bets that can put a strain on your wallet. As a result, slot machines are accessible to all players, whether they are beginners or experts in the field. However, not all slot machines offer you the same chance of winning the jackpot.

The best slot machines to maximize your chances of winning are the so-called “progressive” machines. These offer a progressive jackpot that can reach phenomenal amounts. Want to know more? Let’s start with some basic definitions.

What Is a Progressive Jackpot?

Unlike the classic jackpot, the progressive jackpot starts with a small wager that increases as the bettor uses the slot machine, in this case, the progressive slot machine. In this sense, bettors themselves decide, in a way, how much of the jackpot they want to bet on and try to win, depending on the machine’s configuration. In most cases, the jackpot amount can be increased from 80% to 98% of the starting bet.

If you are playing on a slot network, the jackpot is much larger. All players contribute to the increase in the amount to be won, and this is from several slot machines.

Some casinos offer networking to further increase the jackpot amount. As soon as a player bets on a casino game or any slot machine, the jackpot amount increases in all casinos that are part of this network. This is a great way to get players to bet and try to win the jackpot! In any case, if you want to win the jackpot playing a slot machine, you know that the progressive machine is the one you should choose.

Pros and Cons of the Progressive Jackpot

Progressive Slots

Although the progressive jackpot can be interesting on many levels, it does have a few drawbacks.

On most progressive slots, you have to bet on the maximum bet to try to win the jackpot. If you are a compulsive bettor, this can be a real disadvantage. That’s why it’s important to know how to manage your game and avoid going over a budget that you set beforehand.

The fact that you have to bet several euros per spin on a progressive machine requires a rather large budget, which is not necessarily within the reach of everyone. So even if you want to win a jackpot, choose a machine that won’t break the bank. After all, the main purpose of playing a slot machine is to have fun, and it wouldn’t be worth ruining that fun by trying to win a jackpot by spending huge amounts of money.

On the other hand, the progressive jackpot has the advantage of allowing you to win extraordinary amounts of money. If you are lucky, you may be able to win thousands or even millions of dollars on one of the most popular slot machines.